My day job has impeded my progress, but, in honor of the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s inauguration as our president, I am releasing the first results from on my ranking voting polling and simulations.
I want to emphasize that this study is not trying to question the actual outcome of the 2016 Presidential election. It is only trying to answer the following questions:
- “What would have happened in 2016 if ranked voting was used?”, and
- “Should the United States use ranked voting in the future?”
Based on a May 2017 nationwide SurveyMonkey survey of almost 1300 respondents, and many tens of thousands of voting simulations, I’ve concluded that Bernie would likely have been elected president in 2016 if we had used instant run-off elections to choose the electors in the electoral college.
Below is a set of 15 slides describing this work. Still to come will be:
- Analysis of alternate ranked voting methods (e.g. “Schultze”), which also predict high probability wins for Sanders
- More detailed description of uncertainty analysis and “convergence” of numerical simulations
- More detailed analysis of poll results
- Public release of polling and simulation data
Below is an essay I submitted to the 2016/17 William F. Buckley, Jr. Ideas Forum and Contest. I was not a finalist, but I appreciated the opportunity to make the conservative argument for algorithmic democracy.
Algorithmic Democracy and a Free Society
by C.R. Krenn (email@example.com) (11/12/17)
In 1950, William F. Buckley Jr. was frustrated by the state of university education in general and by Yale education in particular, and he was not alone. Today, I am frustrated by the state of democratic government in general and by the U.S. Congress in particular, and I am not alone. Regularly, more than 75% of voters polled disapprove of how Congress is handling its job . We should be frustrated that the current polarization in Congress seems to prevent any meaningful discussion or compromise on issues such as immigration, campaign finance reform, tax reform, gun violence, or climate change. We should be heartened that, although the fraction of voters who disapprove of Congress’s job performance is growing, this has not yet significantly changed the voting rate . And, we should be relieved that, although the electorate is becoming more polarized, there is still significant overlap in political values between self-identified Democratic and Republican voters . We all can and should have a louder voice in our government and in the future of our country.
Continue reading “A Conservative Argument for Algorithmic Democracy”